The Rise (and Rise and Rise) of Rice

Comment from Merrill Lynch (link to a note this morning):

• "There are many tsunamis in the agri world, but this is a big one The floods in Southern China will cause huge damage to China's rice production. There will be extensive damage to a host of other crops but let's focus on Asia's staple : rice.
• "David Cui reckons that up to 13m tonnes may be lost, or over 10% of China's harvest. To put it into context, 13m is equivalent to the total exports out of Thailand and Vietnam combined : the world's top 2 exporters. It's two years' worth of US production. The equivalent in the oil world would be Russia not producing any oil for four months... Where would oil prices be then?
• "And another snippet : if China wants to replace this lost crop by importing, that would soak up 50% of global trade... so where do we think rice prices are going to head in that monopsonistic scenario ?
  
• The point is that China subsidizes rice prices by about 40% vs global prices and these floods have to put pressure on global prices exacerbating the situation. Unless China raises domestic prices, smuggling, already an issue, will escalate."

(What would I buy to play this? Noodles.)

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A word from my distant past that I've not heard in ages:

In economics, a monopsony (from Ancient Greek μόνος (monos) "single" + ὀψωνία (opsōnia) "purchase") is a market form with only one buyer, called "monopsonist," facing many sellers.

(Thank you, Wikipedia!) And yes, the writer's a Brit.