Wednesday, June 25, 2008

GoodbyeMoto... HelloHTC?!?!

I thought HTC's much-vaunted Diamond was a bit of a snooze.

Then I saw this offering from Motorola - the catchily (not!) named MotoROKR E8 and realised that maybe the Diamond's not so bad after all.

While on the subject of good ol' HTC (see my previous bearish comments here), the Nokia deal last night to turn Symbian into the Symbian Foundation and go the Linux-like free route attracted a host of bearish comments, such as this one from my mates at Citi: (edited version)

  • We believe this move is likely to give Symbian phone makers meaningful cost advantage over Window Mobile phone makers.
  • We think it’s unlikely for Microsoft to eliminate or reduce software licensing fee in a meaningful way
  • Despite HTC’s effort to diversify its Microsoft exposure, we estimate Android-based models will account for less than 10% of HTC's shipments in 2009.
  • Without proprietary OS, HTC's product definition is highly restricted by Microsoft’s direction, which is not necessarily where HTC wants to go.
  • Given high market expectations, substantial valuation re-rating and uncertainties ahead, we view HTC's risk-reward profile as unattractive.
Actually, Diamond's not so bad... and if Symbian's going free, then MSFT OS + Google Android focused HTC will have more toys to play with (at the cost of more R&D, of course, and the usual OEM/brand conflict that they are getting used to by now.) All that and piggybacking off a bigger pie if Nokia and the like start pushing and advertising SmartPhone applications as must-haves.

I'd be covering and would start to go long, and add over the next few weeks.

(Remember, this is not a portfolio position of ours.)

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