Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Bullish US consumer confidence??

The Conference Board consumer confidence figures came out for June last night at 50.4, the lowest since, (roughly.) Pick one:
  • Bill Clinton was US President
  • The Washington Redskins won their last Superbowl
  • Operation Desert Storm
  • The S&P500 had a 300 handle and the Dow had a 2,000 handle
  • Apartheid ended in South Africa
  • The Collapse of the Soviet Union
  • The Start of The English Premier League
  • Windows 3.1
  • Tim Berners-Lee published an article about some new-fangled idea for a "World Wide Web"
  • And "to get rich" became "glorious" in China... (maybe?!)
  • ... etc etc

I was all set for some bearish comments, but just looking at the very simple chart below after those lousy figures (expectations were for 56 with the prev month at 58!) it actually looks quite bullish for equity markets, whether in the US or Asia, if you are taking a 2+ year view, which we all really ought to be. (Try and pick the bottom? Be my guest...)


Updated numbers not on the chart (for some reason):
  • S&P500 (orange) 1314.3
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (white) 50.4
  • MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan (yellow) 466.7
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