Wednesday, June 18, 2008

US May inflation at +7.2%! (... at the producer level)

Overnight, the US IP figures were down 0.2% mom in May from down 0.7% the previous month and against expectations of a gain of 0.1%. More worries about growth vs inflation... given that the "core" PPI (ie ex-food and energy) came in at 0.2%, DOWN from April's 0.4% and bang inline with consensus, according to Bloomberg.

But looking at the headline PPI, which includes (as in real life) food and energy it looks a bit less rosy at 1.4%%, up from 0.2% expectations of 1.0%.

THIS wasn't what struck me most - it was the year on year figure... the Brits are whining, as they do, about retail prices up 4.3% yoy... May producer prices (admittedly more volatile than CPI - see chart below) were up
7.2%!
(Expected +6.8%, prev month +6.5%.)

That's A LOT!!! Why is this figure not in big bold type all over the press?!?! And expectations for a rate hike fell???



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(China's May PPI came in at 8.2%, as recently reported, not a whole heap higher than what the US is generating... and CPI was +7.7%.)

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