Friday, August 1, 2008

Suddenly, Sellside Sez. . . S E L L !

Having taken a break from polling during July, I asked my salespeople/salestraders this morning at/around market opening (with, you recall, the US off hard overnight and ETFs indicating close to a -3% day across the region)

"Quick poll - do you expect mkt to be UP in August... OR DOWN?"

The results, as of lunchtime, were 2:1 SELLERS with (unusually) nobody sitting on the fence at all! Admittedly, only a third or so responded, so things could feasibly change over the next day or two - if it does so materially, you know where to look.

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Moi? Not (just) because the sellside is net bearish, but markets (globally) remain very squeezy - so I would go for flat by month end, but with a trajectory the reverse of July's... ie squeeze higher then at some point OMG! OMG! OMG! crash and sail on south through September. Something like that!!

We shall see...

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Stumble It!
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