Landslide in Taiwan! Everybody on the same side!!

From The FT:

Taiwan’s voters gave a resounding victory to Ma Ying-jeou of the opposition Kuomintang party in the island’s presidential election, raising hopes of a reduction in tensions with China. Mr Ma gained 58.45 per cent of the vote. Frank Hsieh from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party won 41.55 per cent.

OK, so now pretty much EVERYBODY is bullish Taiwan, specifically focusing on the domestic (assets, retail), financial and Cross-Straits-Play names, and generally quite bearish on the tech plays (strong NTD, weak US etc.)

• For example, Dickson Ho at MS is saying that "Ma Ying Jeou’s victory in the presidential election will help to re-establish Taiwanese political confidence to their country. We expect the confidence recovery will drive Taiwanese liquidity, either offshore or onshore, back to work (invest or consume in Taiwan). This would be the most important factor to drive a multi-year stock market re-rating."
• Meanwhile, Ken Chen at UBS boils it down to three trends: "(1) a liquidity rally driven by locals, (2) property prices to climb further and (3) higher interest rates & a stronger currency"
• Peter Kurz (Mr Taiwan himself) at Citi notes this morning that this "is not South Korea insofar as the post-election rally would be short-lived for two reasons. Firstly, the economic implications of the change in ruling parties is far greater for Taiwan than it is for Korea given the economic distortions and capital outflow deriving from policies which effectively isolated Taiwan from the Chinese economy. Secondly, Taiwan’s legislative election has already passed and has effectively given the KMT president-elect an unencumbered mandate. Korea’s legislative elections won’t be held until April."

More than just bullish Taiwan, almost everybody seems to be going for a rally now for a few days followed by a brief sell-off, and then a multi-year re-rating. Despite strong relative performance in Asia, I would keep going with the trade for now, but am worryingly inline with the consensus view!!