Thursday, February 21, 2008

Yield curve: Steeper = Techs will... ???

Theory: Steep/Steepening yield curves imply stronger economic growth in future - hence future tech earnings positive, hence tech stock bullish... techs generally being econ sensitive growth stocks. (Link to more on interest rates.)

Reality: I can't really see it... at least over the last 5 years. What am I missing?

White line: US yield curve, 30yr minus 3 months

Orange line: NASDAQ Composite - known to be tech heavy

Yellow line: Taiwan Tech sub-index

Green line: Asia ex-Japan index

Chart from Bloomberg. All rebased to 100 5yrs back. Yield curve inverted (<0%) at from July '06 to May '07, then again at end July '07.


(TSWEELEC and NASDAQ Composite - twins separated at birth?!)

I like some tech names going forward anyway, but...
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