Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Good news... Bad news... Who cares...?

From overnight:

GOOD NEWS
  • IBM announces a big buyback and raises guidance
  • Moody's reaffirms MBIA
  • Fed vice chair Kohn said inflation not much of a worry

BAD NEWS
  • Fed vice chair Kohn said inflation not much of a worry because growth is slowing so much
  • Moody's keeps AMBAC on review
  • US PPI ex food and energy MUCH worse than expected
  • US home prices (broad) down by more than expected
  • Consumer confidence at a 5 year low
  • Google, Target and Wal-Mart horrible results
  • Oil up >$101, Gold up to a record, Wheat shooting up - still, USD down to a record low vs the Euro
  • ...and... oh, who cares...
... The markets just want to go up and are only looking at the good news as a handy excuse. This happens from time to time.

And here in Asia, freshly dressed wounds from the pre Chinese New Year short squeeze are still stinging... fears of short positions being squeezed are being stirred up by a few brokers going to a buy on the China banks (big in the indices), and quite a bit of long money just now stepping in off the sidelines. Having a "generous" HK budget today and a well taken HK$1bn Swire placement last night (in under half an hour) helped too. But what's really changed, eh?

So cover a bit, let the longs run for a short while and then be brave and put on your shorts again... I'm taking the time to look for short stock ideas to work on.

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