Monday, April 14, 2008

PBoC will stay tight (=>China property names getting caned)

Pretty tough talk from the PBoC chief Zhou Xiaochuan over the weekend, saying again that there's room for rate increases.

That's as you would expect, of course - there's no chance Chinese officials will say they are loosening policy while inflation remains above 8%, though in reality there may be minor moves in regulations and reserve requirements (each way) in the meantime.

Number to watch for is Wednesday's March CPI figure, which is expected to come in at 8.3% ("whisper") from February's 8.7%... but food inflation will be the key.


(Here's Frank Gong's note from last week on China inflation, incidentally, in which he comments on why food inflation is NOT what we should be so worried about.)

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